ForexMetrics Currency Index and related Forex Report - ForexMetrics.com - June30/08 By KERSI JILLA

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ForexMetrics Currency Index and related Forex Report    -    ForexMetrics.com - June30/08
By   KERSI  JILLA      
         
“ForexMetrics Currency Index” is a barometer to measure overall relative global economic
growth and inflation based on value of major global convertible currencies.
         
Trend and Projections from ForexMetrics Currency Index  
      27-Jun-08 30-Jun-08
ForexMetrics Currency Index  …….Detail Info    1.2327 1.2285
Net Change in Pips 0.0042 -0.0034%
         
FOREXMETRICS CURRENCY INDEX       &      CONTINUOUS MOVING AVERAGE   (C.M.A.)               
Currencies FMCI  -  C.M.A FMCI - Current C.M.A. to Current FMCI 
OP. Rates Current  June 30 Pips % Change
FMCI 1.1995 1.2285 0.0290 2.4173%
No.of Gainers 8      
No. of Losers 2      
USD 1.3225 1.3420 0.0195 1.4732%
EUR 2.0460 2.1262 0.0801 3.9164%
GBP 2.6233 2.6881 0.0648 2.4695%
JPY 0.0232 0.0227 0.0006 -2.4993%
CHF 1.2735 1.3188 0.0454 3.5613%
CAD 1.3137 1.3284 0.0147 1.1172%
AUD 1.2344 1.2902 0.0558 4.5203%
NZD 1.0363 1.0191 0.0171 -1.6532%
HKD 0.1603 0.1629 0.0026 1.6061%
SGD 0.9601 0.9862 0.0261 2.7179%
FMCI           =           CURRENCY PERFORMACE AGAINST THE BASKET OF CURRENCIES.
         
Currencies FMCI FMCI Change in FMCI 
  27-Jun 30-Jun Pips % Change
USD 1.3518 1.3420 0.0098 -0.7263%
EUR 2.1359 2.1262 0.0097 -0.4542%
GBP 2.6975 2.6881 0.0094 -0.3491%
JPY 0.0226 0.0227 0.0001 0.3896%
CHF 1.3214 1.3188 0.0026 -0.1960%
CAD 1.3340 1.3284 0.0056 -0.4194%
AUD 1.2913 1.2902 0.0011 -0.0840%
NZD 1.0167 1.0191 0.0024 0.2404%
HKD 0.1640 0.1629 0.0012 -0.7119%
SGD 0.9916 0.9862 0.0055 -0.5510%
FMCI 1.2327 1.2285 0.0042 -0.3432%
         
ForexMetrics Currency Index     Current Forecast:    
Current Trend Resistance Support C.M.A.    Range
         
Range 1.2449 1.1950 1.2160 1.1890
 
Global Growth rate with reference to FMCI :   Weak
Global Inflation rate with reference to FMCI :   Upward
Global Economic Cycle with reference to FMCI  :   Stagflation
 
USD INDEX   -  Current 72.293    
         
Trading Strategy : High Volatility with wider trading band - trade caution is advised.
Fx-Pairs 30-Jun EUR/USD GBP/USD EUR/GBP
Long  Term Trend (Monthly) Range Range Neutral
Short Term Trend (Daily) Upward Upward Range
Perception   Stable Stable Stable
Volatility   High High Medium
Action: Fundamental Analysis HOLD SELL HOLD
Action: Technical Analysis BUY BUY HOLD
Current Rate:   1.5788 1.9943 0.7913
Resistance   1.5939 2.0074 0.7982
Median   1.5794 1.9916 0.7820
Support   1.5559 1.9661 0.7858
MTP-Trading Strategy   Click-Here for Details
         
Major Currencies: Currency Bias Trend Perception Volatility
USD:   Neutral Upward Stable High
EURO:    Neutral Upward Stable High
GBP:    Neutral Upward Stable High
Note:       As per FMCI      
Commodities:   Trend Perception Volatility
OIL   Closing : $140.21 Range Stable Medium
Gold Closing : $931.30 Range Stable Medium
         
Observation:  
FMCI was down, but above CMA  by  2.4173%  signifying net positive growth continuity in
Global economies. Stagflation dominant. USD was significantly down along with Euro &
Cable as US economy recovery expectations are delayed.  USD hammered by Cable & Euro
is not justifyable fundamentally. Speculation on interest rate rise pushed Euro and cable on
firm grounds, but as per FMCI we expect range bound rates will continue till interest rate
directions is set. Expect 25 bps increase in EU interest rate, although fundamentally not
Justified.  UK rate will be data dependant. Expect volatility in currency trading.
 
Major Economies Interest Rate Probability :
Current Interest Rate: Probability % RATE Basis Int.Rate Bias
USA:   2.00% 95.00% 0.00% Neutral
E.U.:    4.00% 90.00% 0.25% Neutral
U.K.: 5.00% 68.00% 0.25% Neutral
JPY: 0.50% 98.00% 0.00% Neutral
SWISS: 2.75% 90.00% 0.00% Neutral
CAD: 3.00% 82.00% 0.00% Dovish
AUD: 7.25% 85.00% 0.00% Dovish
NZD: 8.25% 68.00% 0.00% Dovish
Global Aerage 4.09%      
Global Interest Rate Trend - Average - 8 Major Country  4.09% Stable
         
         
FMI          Inflation to Growth ratio  /  Net Growth rate Expt. Current Forecast-2009
USD:   Negative   -2.60  
EURO:    Negative   -1.60  
GBP:    Negative   -1.80  
Note:  
Positive Ratio  -   Growth Rate is higher than Inflation rate >   1.01
Neutral Ratio   -   Growth Rate and Inflation rate are Balanced >  -1.00 & < 1.00
Negative Ratio -   Inflation is higher than Growth rate >  -1.01
         
CURRENT ECONOMIC DATA  Click here for detail economic data. 
         
Good Luck        
         
Disclaimer        
Please be advised that above views are of the author of ForexMetrics and above
material is for the purpose of reference only and author or Forex Metrics Inc. 
will not be responsible for any decision based on the above material. 
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