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How to read Forex Metrics Currency Index and Continuous Moving Average |
| How to read Forex Metrics Currency Basket |
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| Forex Metrics Currency Index with Continuous Moving Average |
| Wednesday, March 10, 2010 |
| Forex Metrics Currency Index - Individual Currency Analysis |
| Forex Metrics Currency Index and Continuous Moving Average of Index |
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C.M.A. |
CURRENT FMCI |
POINT DIFFERENCE |
PERCENTAGE DIFFERENCE |
CURRENCY TREND |
Currency / CMA-FMCI |
| USD |
1.2744 |
1.1741 |
-0.1003 |
-7.8685% |
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| EUR |
1.8313 |
1.6067 |
-0.2246 |
-12.2653% |
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| GBP |
2.2309 |
1.7634 |
-0.4675 |
-20.9561% |
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| JPY |
0.0019 |
0.0020 |
0.0001 |
5.7681% |
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| CHF |
1.1730 |
1.0966 |
-0.0764 |
-6.5141% |
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| CAD |
1.1830 |
1.1459 |
-0.0371 |
-3.1383% |
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| AUD |
1.0654 |
1.0729 |
0.0075 |
0.7078% |
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| NZD |
0.8743 |
0.8202 |
-0.0541 |
-6.1892% |
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| HKD |
0.1545 |
0.1417 |
-0.0128 |
-8.2978% |
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| SGD |
0.8884 |
0.8367 |
-0.0517 |
-5.8178% |
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| C.M.A. / FMCI |
1.0676 |
0.9660 |
-0.1016 |
-9.5184% |
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| Upward Trend |
Neutral Trend |
Downward Trend |
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| C.M.A. = CONTINUOUS MOVING AVERAGE |
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FOREX METRICS CURRENCY INDEX - OUTLOOK
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*Forex Metrics Currency Index is consolidating positively and currency baskets are trending upwards signifying change of trend. |
| CMA Greater than FMCI indicates a net negative economic growth and recession. |
| FMCI Support & Resistance Level |
Support |
Resistance |
| 0.9150 |
1.1150 |
* Recession will be said to be over only when FMCI crosses CMA.
*
Mild inflationary trend expected once FMCI crosses CMA.
* Job loss globally sites bottom and unemployment level will consolidate.
* Increase in GDP will be through increase in level of productivity.
*
Unemployment
level in develop economy to stabilize but will not fall. |
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How to read Forex Metrics Currency Index and Continuous Moving Average
- Forex Metrics Currency Index quantifies fundamental changes in
individual economy as well as global economy by measuring the changes in relative currencies value through individual currency Index.
- Forex Metrics Currency Index represents Value of single global currency or Reserve Currency.
- Forex Metrics Currency Index upward movement indicates a positive fundamental outlook of global economic growth.
- Upward movement in Individual currency basket / index indicates a positive outlook of that particular economy.
- Forex Metrics Currency Index downward movement indicates a negative fundamental outlook of global economic growth.
- Downward movement in Individual currency basket / index indicates a positive outlook of that particular economy.
- Continuous Moving Average (CMA) of Forex Metrics Currency Index is a long term average that signifies long term fundamental outlook.
- FMCI greater than CMA Global economic outlook is Positive.
- FMCI less than CMA Global economic outlook is Negative.
- When FMCI crosses CMA, it signifies a fundamental change of trend.
- Difference between FMCI and CMA signifies intensity of boom or burst in global economic scenario.
- Higher the difference, higher the volatility in value of currencies and economic uncertainty.
- Small difference indicates stability in global economics and value of currencies.
- If CMA is greater than FMCI: Increasing difference between CMA and FMCI signifies severity in net global economic growth and recession/deflationary pressure.
- If CMA is greater than FMCI: Decreasing difference between CMA and FMCI signifies net global economic recovery and easing of recessionary/deflationary pressure.
- If CMA is less than FMCI: Increasing difference between CMA and FMCI signifies boom in net global economic growth and rising inflationary pressure.
- If CMA is less than FMCI: Decreasing difference between CMA and FMCI signifies stabilizing net global economic growth and easing inflationary pressure.
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How to read FMCI Currency Basket?
Forex Metrics Currency Index is based on 10 Major convertible currencies and it is an average of 10 currency indices.
- If CMA of a currency Basket is less than FMCI: Currency is Bullish.
- If CMA of a currency basket is greater than FMCI of basket: Currency basket is Bearish.
- If individual currency index is above its CMA, while CMA of FMCI is Negative, that particular currency index is read as bullish.
- If individual currency index is above its CMA, while CMA of FMCI is Positive, that particular currency index is read as relatively bullish.
- If individual currency index is below its CMA, while CMA of FMCI is Positive, that particular currency index is read as bearish.
- If individual currency index is below its CMA, while CMA of FMCI is Negative, that particular currency index is read as relatively bearish.
- Crossover of CMA over FMCI is change of trend of that particular basket.
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